Despite their limitations, this new Important Statistics provides the most readily useful offered study that in order to estimate this new national divorce case rates within the 1990. S. Census Agency staff demonstrates that relationship occurrences study regarding the ACS and you may You.S. Crucial Statistics (like the DRA attempt) was comparable ( Elliott ainsi que al., 2010). Quotes for much more recent years commonly you can as federal government deserted the latest collection of important analytics to your marriage ceremonies and vilkaise tätä sivustoa you will divorces within state height in 1996.
Making sure that our very own results are sturdy, i performed an extra analysis by the limiting the newest 2010 ACS analysis to simply the latest DRA sample says wherein ages at the lifetime of splitting up is said into the 1990. The outcomes out of this supplemental analysis are nearly just like the individuals according to research by the entire country, recommending the boost in the newest divorce proceedings rates is not an artifact from in addition to ACS investigation of all claims.
Analytic Approach
Our approach is primarily descriptive as we aim to provide trend data on divorce and to identify the factors associated with divorce among today’s middle-aged and older adults. All results are presented for the total sample and separately for middle-aged (aged 50–64) and older (aged 65 and older) adults to assess whether there is cohort variation. To begin, we calculate the 1990 and 2010 divorce rates (and numbers of divorces) to determine whether the risk of divorce has increased over the past two divorce rates for various subgroups to show how the likelihood of divorce varies by sociodemographic factors (demographic characteristics, economic resources, and the marital biography). Next, we present bivariate comparisons of those who divorced versus remained e sets of factors. Finally, we estimate logistic regression models to examine how demographic characteristics, economic resources, and the marital biography are related to divorcing in the past 12 months (coded 1) versus remaining married (coded 0). Individuals who experienced widowhood in the past 12 months are included in the remained married category because they were at risk of divorce in the past 12 months. Excluding them from the analysis produced substantively similar findings (results not shown). These models provide correlational evidence only; divorces took place during the past 12 months, whereas the sociodemographic characteristics are measured at interview. Factors associated with the likelihood of divorce, such as employment or income, may have changed in response to divorce. Thus, interpretation of the findings requires caution. All analyses were conducted using replicate weighting techniques as recommended by the U.S. Census Bureau to generate robust standard errors because the ACS involves a complex sampling design ( U.S. Census Bureau, 2009). Given the large sample size of the ACS, we imposed a stringent threshold for statistical significance: a two-tailed p < .01>
Roentgen esults
Because the shown into the Figure step one, the latest breakup price has doubled since the 1990, ascending off cuatro.9 in order to ten.step 1 divorced people for each and every step 1,000 partnered people. That it development belies all round pattern about You.S. split up speed during this time, which had been fundamentally apartment at the 19.0 in 1990 and you can 17.nine this year (effects perhaps not found). The fresh new increasing of the rate out of separation one of center-old and you will older adults translates into a hefty rise in the latest number of individuals old 50 and you may old just who experience divorce. From inside the 1990, whenever 206,007 people old 50 and you can elderly got separated, while this present year on the 643,152 got divorced. In order to contextualize so it trend, consider you to definitely fewer than one in ten people whom separated in the 1990 try aged fifty and older in contrast to more step one in cuatro today (impact perhaps not revealed). Also, of course, if the latest breakup rates stays lingering along the next twenty years-a conventional expectation according to the previous trend-what number of people aged 50 and you may more mature who does experience splitting up during the 2030 manage go up by the 1 / 3rd in order to more 828,380 (authors’ formula based on ages-specific estimated society systems when you look at the 2030 [ You.S. Census Bureau, 2004]), highlighting the newest quickening growth in the fresh old adult population that may can be found over the 2nd twenty years.
